The United States 2024 presidential election has been intensely contested since Kamala Harris emerged as Donald Trump‘s opponent. Individuals have turned to prediction marketplaces to gain insights into the approval ratings of each candidate, while investors hypothesize about the results.
In particular, the cryptocurrency-driven Polymarket has gained traction by facilitating wagers using the regulated dollar stablecoin USDC. With the highest speculative activity, analysts have determined this prediction market to be more reliable than traditional surveys and polls.
On September 4, Finbold compiled data from Polymarket‘s specialized analysis page regarding the U.S. elections, which currently shows Donald Trump in the lead. As noted, Trump now holds an advantage over Harris, with a 52% likelihood of winning compared to her 47% probability.
This follows nearly a month after the Democratic candidate surpassed the Republican candidate for the first time on August 10. Donald Trump reclaimed the lead on August 21, maintaining a narrow edge over Kamala Harris in recent days.
Polymarket‘s 2024 presidential election wager
In essence, Polymarket‘s data originates from a free trading platform utilized by traders globally who place their bets by acquiring shares. Each successful share will yield one dollar in USDC, and traders have the option to buy them at a variable exchange rate.
At the time of this writing, Donald Trump’s “yes” wager is priced at approximately $0.52, reflecting the probability of success in the prediction market. Should Trump be victorious in the election, every individual who bets “yes” at this moment will earn $0.48 per share.
In total, traders have placed $794.25 million in wagers for the presidential election victor, expected to conclude on November 4, 2024. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have $103.96 million and $95.83 million in bets respectively, concerning both “yes” and “no” predictions.
Prediction markets explore further into Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s popularity
Apart from the raw data indicating the prospective president of the United States, the market also places bets on various related forecasts.
For instance, Polymarket provides a breakdown of each candidate’s popularity across different States. Donald Trump currently leads in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, with support at 59%, 58%, 53%, and 52%, in that order.
Conversely, Kamala Harris holds an advantage in Wisconsin and Michigan with a 56% and 59% probability of victory, respectively.
The prediction market is also supporting a 71% chance of Harris winning the popular vote or a 23% chance that the candidates will shake hands during their initial debate.
While prediction markets are gaining momentum swiftly, the odds can become increasingly erratic and do not ensure any specific results.
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