The stock exchanges in Japan are undergoing a revival, hitting levels not witnessed since the era of the country’s notorious “bubble economy” in 1990. Nonetheless, analysts promptly observe that this upsurge differs significantly from the speculative frenzy of the past. Japan has gone through structural alterations, and nationwide real estate values have not surged as rampantly as they did in the prior bubble era.
The Nikkei 225, the benchmark index of Japan, has exceeded the milestone of 30,000 since late May, representing an achievement not seen in 33 years. Yet, it is crucial to note that the index is still around 18% lower than its historical peak of 38,915 reached on December 29, 1989.
The collapse of the bubble in the early 1990s was set off by the decision of the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policies, resulting in the crash of stock and property values. By September 1990, the Nikkei index had dropped to just half of its peak, marking the onset of Japan’s “lost decade.”
Opposing the fears of a reoccurrence, analysts interviewed by CNBC are of the opinion that it is improbable for Japan to encounter a similar downfall this time. Dong Chen, the head of macroeconomic studies at Pictet, a private banking institution, mentioned that the present circumstances of Japan diverge significantly from those of the late 1980s.
According to Talaria Capital, Japan’s remarkable stock surge might ease off in the latter half of this year. https://t.co/wKayg1pajB
— Bloomberg (@business) June 26, 2023
“It is highly arduous to contend that Japan is confronting identical circumstances as seen in the late 1980s,” declared Chen, accentuating the striking transformations that have taken place in the Japanese economy.
Ryota Abe, an economist within the global markets and treasury department of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, echoes this sentiment. He is of the view that the rapid economic expansion, minimal jobless rates, and effortless credit accessibility propelled the stock boom in the 1980s. These elements played a pivotal role in the speculative enthusiasm that eventually brought about the burst of the bubble.
Nonetheless, the ongoing surge in Japan’s equities market is being steered by differing dynamics. Analysts point to more sustainable influences such as enhanced corporate administration, profit expansion, and potential policy reforms as underlying factors in the market’s resilience.
Although some moderation or even a correction may be anticipated in the short run, analysts retain a positive outlook on the long-run investment potential in Japan. The metamorphosing economic landscape of the country and the absence of the extravagances witnessed during the bubble era indicate a more secure groundwork for advancement.
